Is Pakistan really supplying Iran with Shaheen III nukes?

In the aftermath of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh’s killing in Iran, a report by the Jerusalem Post claimed Pakistan will supply Iran with Shaheen III ballistic missiles should Iran be attacked. This has prompted Pakistan foreign office to issue a response and to deny Pakistan is considering such a move. “Such reports are patently false. Before paying any attention to such reports, it is important to reflect on the source behind such baseless reports and the malicious agenda behind them. This is a critical time in the Middle East. We, therefore, urge all parties, including the media, not to indulge in peddling of fake news,” said the Foreign Office spokeswoman Ms. Mumtaz Zahra Baloch.

The dismissal by the foreign affairs ministry didn’t seem enough since the topic has exploded in the news cycle. Interestingly, the media outlets amplifying the claims are Indian and all of them are linking to the original Jerusalem Post report. And this is what the Jerusalem Post bases its report on:

Maariv, an Israeli publication and member of the Jerusalem Post Group, cited Arab sources in its report that Pakistan planned to supply Iran with the missiles should war break out with Israel. This was reportedly discussed during an emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), requested by Iran and Pakistan, in Saudi Arabia.

Other than the obvious far-fetched nature of the reports, Pakistan is highly unlikely to embark on a suicide mission like that. Pakistan and Israel official do not have diplomatic ties and there have always been tension and uneasiness between both countries at international forums. Despite the fact that Pakistan overtly joined the Arabs during the Arab-Israel wars, there have been instances where both countries have cooperated on security intelligence behind the scenes. Pakistan’s powerful military establishment has also been mulling joining the Arab states in cessation of hostilities against Israel in the recent years, even if that is in stark contrast with the public sentiment which runs deeply anti-Israel and pro-Palestine.

Not to mention the economic factor. Pakistan has been facing the worse economic and political crises ever. It cannot afford wars at this time. In fact, it is this economic weakness that Pakistan hasn’t been relevant at the global stage at all. What little influence it had on the west in Afghanistan seems to have diminished fast. On the Middle East crisis Pakistan is not a player at all. Yes, that, despite that fact that some analysts in Iran or Turkey or from the Arab world would have us believe otherwise based solely on pan-Muslim solidarity and Pakistan being the only nuclear power. The reality, however, is the sheer realism of the international politics. Pakistan, like its Arab allies are not interested in a conflict with Israel at this time.

That said, Pakistan has always been a kind of enigma and a wildcard on the international stage. We know that the public sentiment runs deep against Israel. There’s also this rhetorical romanticism that you’d hear from the military personnel and their friends and families. How their ultimate goal is to fight the Jewish state and not really India. How Pakistan and Israel are inherently anti-each other since both countries had its foundations rooted in religious ideologies. The ideologies are not even remotely the same but that’s what many in Pakistan believe. Something biblical, the Muslim state facing off the Jewish state — a face off meant to be. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were elements within the Pakistani military mulling if this is their chance at the “ultimate holy war”. They might be asking each other, what are the nukes for if not to help out fellow Muslims being bombed, and their homes raised to the ground.

There are no reasons to believe the threat of Pakistan getting involved with their nukes is real. This is also reflected in Pakistan’s foreign policy. Where Pakistan has maintained close and friendly ties with Iran, it has also refrained from issuing threats or inflammatory language against Israel. And if you take into account the behind the scene diplomacy attempts, the reports that Pakistan might go on a suicide mission by supplying Iran with nukes against Israel appear even more ridiculous.